Senior advisers to President Donald Trump are working to prevent the war with Iran from spiraling out of control before the November midterm elections for political consequences that would affect congressional Republicans who hold razor-thin margins. But keeping this strategic state of denial has been a challenge as American and Iranian troops keep engaging in retaliatory attacks in the region.
Rather than trying to hurt Tehran’s economy, the administration is relying on increased economic pressure as a way of forcing Tehran to the table, while avoiding the spotlight at the election campaign. Top leaders at The White House, along with U.S. DoD, are considering whether to restart or step up direct military operations post vote Nov. 3, but any move to a broader air campaign is dependent on what happens on the ground.
The push for a pause comes as domestic fatigue with the conflict grows, as both the public approval ratings sink and there is continued voter displeasure at the increased price of gasoline. Presidential spokesman Sean Spicer has repeatedly said that his military posture is not guided by the election, but by Tehran’s quest for nuclear weapons, though he has warned that any attacks by Tehran on U.S. forces would lead to ” Military countermeasures” that are “a lot more severe.
Administrative factors have also been a factor in the administration’s strategic thinking. Senior leadership at the U.S. Department of Defense has received reports that stockpiles of some precision munitions are critically low after seven months of constant war, with concerns about readiness in other parts of the world. A slowdown in operations provides a crucial moment for U.S. Central Command’s forces to restock with critical supplies of ordnance, and at the same time stay ready to respond to any additional drone and missile strike on regional transit corridors.
But Washington isn’t just moving forward with kinetic force, it has also been devoting a significant portion of its resources to escalating economic sanctions. Treasury has tightened up secondary sanctions and is targeting illicit financial networks in an effort to cut Tehran from world energy trade.
But defense analysts and diplomats warn there are significant barriers to the economic containment. Basic trading partners like China have been quick to circumvent unilateral sanctions, Gulf partners have been persistent in calling for a diplomatic de-escalation to prevent further regional contagion, and Tehran has the incentive and capability to carry out periodic attacks on regional shipping to upset the equilibrium.
