Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the Financial Market Committee of the State Duma, has forecast a possible 2% growth rate for the Russian economy by 2026’s end. He expressed his positive vision in an interview with the official state news agency, TASS, recently.

The forecast is starkly different from earlier estimates by conservative analysts, and is indicative of greater than expected momentum in the domestic economy as the year unfolds.

Key Drivers: Import Substitution and Anticipated Rate Cuts

According to Aksakov, this is due to several factors coming together at the same time that could generate a boost in the economy. He noted that the increase in production, expanding customer demand and the continued success of home-based import substitution had a significant impact on the trend.

The lawmaker in the course of a meeting with the regional economic ministry in Cheboksary also noted the key importance of the expected monetary policy changes. Aksakov said he was confident the Bank of Russia will be soon reducing its main interest rate more actively. This expected policy change would result in lower interest rates that would further encourage business investment and consumer spending.

Overall, the Russian economy will continue to be in positive territory this year, Aksakov said. His 2% forecast is significantly higher than the current forecasts made by the Government of the Russian Federation, where the expected growth of the Russian economy is 0.4% for 2026.

In the larger picture, the country’s overall socio-economic situation also suggests gradual recovery. On the basis of baseline forecasts, frequently prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia’s GDP growth rate may slowly rise and may reach 2.4% year-on-year at the end of the planning period of 2028-2029.