The European Commission has issued a new strategic paper on “Preparing for a wider Union” which sets out what policies will need to be changed to take account of the future enlargement of the Union. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underlined the importance of the decisions made today for the future of the European Union, calling enlargement a geopolitical imperative. The offers come before senior European leaders lay out their plans for expansion incentives and internal stability at the summits.
The bloc has grown from 12 to 28 member states and then 27 after Britain’s departure and shrank further to 19 when Cyprus joined in 2004. But for years the accession process has been languishing over intricate negotiations and paltry political will among the current members. But recently, with the new geopolitical environment – highlighted by the Russian invasion in Ukraine and changing global dynamics – Brussels has been waking up to the need to discuss how to resolve the deadlock of strict accession rules and unanimous voting.
The Commission will introduce a gradual approach to integration that will benefit citizens and businesses early on, but requires conditions to be met and is reversible. The future accession treaties would have more effective measures in place to combat democratic regression, such as the possibility of suspending voting rights for serious violations.
One of the most significant proposed changes would be from the basic condition of a unanimous vote to a qualified majority vote for the intermediate steps in accession, with the final approval of membership still requiring a unanimous vote from the European Council. The executive group also recommended specific measures to restrict the availability of finance and market for sensitive agricultural products. The issue was taken up specifically – that of Ukraine’s huge agriculture sector, which depends on a large amount of centralized funding from the EU, and not from the Ukrainian government.
There are eight countries in the Candidate group at present. Montenegro is a clear frontrunner for membership, with Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos saying that the country is close to membership by 2028. This is particularly the case in Ukraine, the newest candidate, which is very driven to hasten their integration because of the continuous war. The other formal applicants are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, North Macedonia and Serbia, as well as Turkey, which has been languishing in the applications limbo for decades. Kosovo is also considered to be a possible candidate, although the formal situation is difficult because there are some EU members who do not recognize the declaration of independence of this area.
