The growth of Cambodia’s economy is expected to fall to 3% in 2026 compared with 5.3% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) attributes this slowdown mainly to the rises in energy prices, deterioration in the tourism industry and reduction in inward remittances. Domestic and global headwinds are weighing on the Southeast Asian country, but the economy will rebound somewhat to growth of 4% by 2027.

Agriculture, real estate, and export of garments, shoes, and travel goods are all of major importance to the country. But weak demand, cutback in garment exports and a lack of demand in the domestic market are adding to the pressures in these main industries. It is expected that inflation will remain high, at 5.6%, until 2026, according to both the Ministry of Economy and Finance and international monitors, once global energy prices have started to normalize.

Projected sharp widening of the current account deficit in Cambodia is cushioned by resilient foreign direct investment (FDI) and appropriate foreign reserves. The role of financial supervision by the institutions, including the National Bank of Cambodia, is also essential while facing those macroeconomic pressures.

Notwithstanding such protection, IMF risks to the economic outlook are still high, heavily skewed to the downside. The Ministry of Tourism and other authorities are grappling with the effects of a downturn in visitor numbers, continued scams and a more rapid than anticipated real estate correction. Moreover, the risks of disruptions from El Niño type extreme weather events could continue to lead to high agricultural price pressures, which would further impact on trade and economic stability.