The Middle East war could cost the region $58 billion in damage for energy-related assets, with oil and gas infrastructure costing up to $50 billion, research firm Rystad Energy said in a report.
This is up from the research company’s first estimate of $25 billion three weeks ago, and takes into account the extent of damage before the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 8.
“Repairs work does not add capacity. It repurposes capacity, and that will impact project schedules and inflation, well beyond the Middle East,” said Karan Satwani, a senior analyst at Rystad.
“The $58 billion price tag may be the headline figure, but the flow-on effects to energy investment schedules around the world are likely to be equally important.”
Rystad estimated repair costs will average some $46 billion, with the bulk of these spent on downstream refining and petrochemical assets, due to their complexity and damage.
An additional $3 billion to $8 billion could be spent on industrial power and desalination.
The time to repair assets and facilities is beginning to vary between assets and nations, highlighting variations in local execution capacity and supply chain access, Rystad said.
Iran is the country most affected, with possibly $19 billion in repair costs, which will affect gas processing, refining and export assets.
On the other hand, Qatar’s damage is more localised but technically challenging, especially at its
Rystad said the largest part of repair costs will be incurred on engineering and construction, but the recovery speed will depend on the capacity to source key equipment.
Rystad said equipment and labour are the key constraints.