The South China Sea has been considered a potentially dangerous flash point between China and the United States. Until now, Southeast Asian countries were viewed only as smaller players swept up by the superpower crossfire.
But this is quickly transforming as a complex security network is becoming more firmly established in the region. These countries are not making formal and binding military pacts, but are looking at strategic access agreements, joint exercises with the coast guard, intelligence sharing, and selective arms acquisitions.
Middle Powers Embrace Multilateral Deterrence Without Formal Alliances
The Philippines Department of National Defence and its counterpart in Vietnam recently elevated bilateral relations to an enhanced strategic partnership, leading the way. They signed a memorandum on defense cooperation on high-level exchanges, information sharing, and joint maritime activities on June 1. This follows their own historic 2024 coast guard exercises, with both sides fearing maritime intimidation but seeking to prevent it through their own territorial claims.
Regional arms dynamics are also changing to increase individual deterrence. India has inked a $629 million contract to supply Vietnam’s Ministry of National Defence with BrahMos supersonic cruise missile system, the government has confirmed late last month.
The Philippines had recently signed a $375 million contract for this system in 2022, making Vietnam the second regional contract for this system. For the Ministry of Defence of India, it represents a concrete move towards defence exports and strategic signalling in the region, as part of the Government’s “Act East” policy.
Arms sales are not the only deals being struck, as intelligence and troop access agreements are booming, too. Last September, the Ministry of Defense of Japan adopted a Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines to increase the number of troops. Both countries are now working on a new agreement to safely share classified defense data.
Further south, a “Jakarta Treaty” is signed between the Department of Defence of Australia and Indonesia in February. This is not a military alliance that requires them to defend each other but is a mechanism for periodic high-level discussions and a cooperative framework if regional security gets out of hand.
“Such agreements are not a NATO-style bloc of unity,” experts say. Rather, they are middle powers that are forming a coalition to make it more difficult and more expensive to use force at sea. Regional leaders see the importance of maintaining law and order at sea but do not wish to form formal alliances that could spur them to unnecessary conflict with their larger neighbours.
This decentralized strategy is partly motivated by the fact that the majority of the world economy is dependent on China, and there is a growing concern about the reliability of the USA as the long-term partner. Southeast Asian countries are building a flexible, multilateral defence security cooperation strategy by enhancing individual capacities and local cooperation.
