The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated the growth rate at 3.5% of Pakistan economy for fiscal year 2026-27. This is below the 4% target of the Ministry of Finance and slightly lower than the growth rate of the previous fiscal year, which was 3.6%.

The country’s headline inflation, meanwhile, is likely to sky rocket to 9.9%, well beyond the government’s inflation target of 8.2%. The figure is significantly higher than the inflation of 7.1% in the fiscal year 2025-26, thereby placing extra strains on the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) policies.

In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund also predicts that Pakistan’s current account deficit is likely to be 1% of GDP. The current deficit is far greater than the surplus of 0.5% in 2025.

The good news, however, is the positive trend in employment as reflected through various indicators like Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The national joblessness is forecast to fall to 6.5% in 2026-27 from 6.9% a year ago and 7.1% the previous year.

IMF expects global growth to remain steady at 3.1% in 2026, and then rise slightly in 2027 to 3.4%. Global inflation is projected to reach its peak this year at 4.7%, down from the previous year, largely due to volatile energy and food prices, and then to ease to 4.1% in 2027.

The economy of the world is in a somewhat unstable state, defined by two main trends, namely the growth of geopolitics, and the rapid development of technology. Companies working in the field of artificial intelligence and countries exporting energy are doing rather well. In contrast to them, countries importing energy are facing many problems related to the growing costs of imports, exchange rate problems, and lack of financial capacity.

The growth of the volume of world trade is predicted to slow down until the middle of 2026, followed by a mild slowdown in 2027. It seems that the slowdown is connected with newly imposed tariffs, evolving production techniques, and adjustment process that are followed by various global organizations, including the WTO.

The IMF is concerned that if the Middle East conflict dragged on, it could maintain high energy prices around the world, and decisively disrupt the current economic scenario. International financial professionals recommend governments seek to grow fiscal space, adapt monetary policies to local conditions, and urgently enhance the readiness of their AI policy and strategy.