Ethiopia’s foreign ministry announced new tensions in the north of the country may lead to a regional war as it and Eritrea sever ties with one another.As the fighting in the northern region of Ethiopia intensifies, the fear is that the conflict may expand to the region with Ethiopia and Eritrea ending their diplomatic relations. The spat between the two countries started over 10 Eritrean diplomats who were ordered to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours, citing “national security threats” after the Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia and the federal authorities ordered closure of the Ethiopian embassy in Asmara.
Eritrea, in turn, promptly cut off all diplomatic ties, calling the expulsions “astounding” and threatening bad consequences in the wake of the expulsion. The clash followed reports of strong explosions happening near the headquarters of Ethiopia’s military on the same day.
The fallout is thus consistent with a dramatic deterioration in bilateral relations, with Ethiopia alleging that Eritrea is supporting a new rebel coalition which seeks to bring down the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This group of rebels is made up of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Fano militia, the latter being Amhara. In the meantime, unverified reports that a pro-government militia has taken control of Milazat, 20 km southeast of Tigrayan capital Mekelle have been surfacing.
The rift between leaders, which comes after a peace agreement that ended two decades of conflict won Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a Nobel Prize in 2018, is a major blow to the process. The two countries have been allies in the devastating war in Tigray in 2020-2022, but have now worsened their ties, mostly because of Ethiopia’s renewed efforts to gain direct access to the Red Sea, which Eritrea considers a threat to its territorial sovereignty.
The war is also fueling the tensions among other neighbors. Shortly after, Ethiopia sent a diplomat from the Egyptian state to its own country for expulsion, which Cairo retaliated against.Recently, Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, without revealing any reason, to which Cairo responded. The relationship has been tense for years between the two nations over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, considered by Egypt as an existential threat to its vital water supply.
The fighting rages in the northern parts of Tigray, Amhara and Afar, in which both the federal forces and the TPLF blame each other for the latest attacks. The area of Afar is especially critical, because the main transport route for Ethiopia to the sea is in jeopardy there. Due to extensive communication bans, it has been hard to simply ascertain whether claims on the frontline are accurate or allegations of Eritrean troop involvement are true.
International observers are calling for de-escalation to be considered. To avoid further destabilisation of the Horn of Africa, the African Union has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to be restrained and settle their differences through peaceful means and diplomacy. At the same time, the United Nations has expressed grave concern at the impact drone killings, road closures and overall insecurity have had on humanitarian access to the areas hit by the conflict – urging all armed groups to ensure safe access to civilians caught in the conflict.
