On May 26, Brent crude oil prices saw a sudden jump of 4.6%, which sort of pushed the benchmark back past the $100 mark. At about $100.60 per barrel when this was written, the market is rebounding quickly after it briefly slipped toward around $95 earlier in the week

This quick spike seems mostly tied to growing instability across the Middle East and very delicate, diplomatic relations between the United States, and Iran.

Escalating Conflict Dashes Hopes for a Quick Resolution

At first, the energy market got this little glimmer of optimism after Donald Trump’s comments that seemed to suggest, some kind of diplomatic movement with Tehran. But honestly that steadier mood lasted not for long, like one breath and then it slipped away.

Then came US military strikes , and along with that Iran’s firm warning that it will not “leave any wrongdoing unanswered” . So the hope for a quick de escalation got really dampened, pretty fast.

The timing for a lasting peace agreement still feels kind of unclear, like nobody can really say for sure. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the ongoing negotiations might go on for several more days, basically stressing how intricate the talks are, and, as a result, keeping a level of uncertainty hanging over international markets.

Supply Chain Fears and the Strait of Hormuz

At the center of all this market panic is the risk of prolonged blockades, like really dragging on. Reuters pointed out that even a steady arrangement to stop the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so global oil shipments can move again, is still extremely questionable.

And even if some sudden diplomatic breakthrough happens, a fast market rebound is not something you should bet on. Ole Hansen, who is a commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, said a ceasefire or peace deal would not automatically bring global oil supplies back to the earlier capacity, not in any immediate way.

So right now the market is bracing for the more awkward, practical part: even if the negotiations succeed, oil shortages worldwide tied to this conflict could very well last another few months.