President Donald Trump confronts the end of the third week of the Iran war, facing a crisis that appears to be going out of his control: Global energy prices are soaring, the United States is alone without allies, and more troops are ready to fight in spite of his claim that the war would be a mere field trip.

A defensive Trump labelled “cowards” the rest of the NATO countries that refused to assist in securing the Strait of Hormuz and claimed that the campaign was going on as planned. However, what went against the facts was his pronouncement on Friday that the battle had been “won militarily,” with the reality being that Iran is becoming increasingly defiant and is choking off the Gulf oil and gas supplies, coupled with firing missiles in the region.

The Trump who came to office promising to keep the U.S. out of stupid military interventions seems to have lost control of the outcome as well as the message of a conflict that he helped to start. The absence of an exit strategy poses dangers to his presidential legacy as well as the political future of his party, with republicans scrambling to hold on to slender majorities in Congress during the November midterm elections.

According to Aaron David Miller, a former Republican and Democratic Middle East negotiator, “Trump has created a self-imposed box regarding the Iran war, and cannot find a way out. That is the major reason for his frustration.”

An official at the White House disputed that description, as many of the senior leaders of Iran have been assassinated, the majority of the Iranian navy has been sunk, and most of its ballistic missiles destroyed.

“It has been a military success, undisputed,” the official said.

LIMITS OF TRUMP’S POWER

The boundaries of Trump’s power, both diplomatically, militarily and politically, were sharply highlighted during the last week.

Another White House official, who, like all other officials contacted by Reuters in this report, was anonymised so as to discuss the inner workings of his administration, quoted him as surprised at the opposition of other NATO members and other foreign allies to the deployment of their navies to assist in the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

As the president does not wish to be seen as isolated, there are those White House aides who have recommended that Trump seek a quick off-ramp and put some limits on the scope of the military operation, said one individual close to the deliberations. However, it was not certain whether this argument was sufficient to influence Trump.

To some observers, this reluctance on the part of allies is a manifestation not just of their hesitation not to be entangled in a war they were not consulted about, but also a retaliation against his demeaning of classic U.S. alliances since he returned to office 14 months ago.

Tensions with Israel have also started to appear now, with Trump claiming that he had no prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field in Iran, and Israeli officials acknowledged that the strike had been pre-planned with the U.S.

Analysts say that Trump now stands at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury with no better indication of the direction he could take.

He would then go all the way and escalate the U.S attack, maybe even occupying the Iranian oil platform on Kharg Island or stationing a force on the Iranian coast to search for missile launchers. However, that would expose the country to a long-term military commitment, which would largely not be supported by the American people.

Or, until both sides agree to negotiate, Trump can claim victory and attempt to walk away, which would damage allies in the Gulf who would be left with an offended and aggressive Iran, one capable of building a crude nuclear weapon and still controlling the shipping in the Gulf. Iran has neglected its claims that it is pursuing a nuclear weapon.

On Friday, Reuters carried a report that the U.S. military was sending thousands of extra Marines and sailors to the Middle East, but there was yet no decision to deploy the troops in Iran itself.

The war has also revealed that Trump no longer has an iron grip over his MAGA movement, as notable influencers have spoken against the war. His base has largely remained with him thus far, but analysts believe that Trump may lose control during the next few weeks, assuming that the gas prices continue to go up and U.S troops are deployed.

“Whether it changes or not, in the way the economics will play out,” American Republican strategist Dave Wilson said, people will begin to say: “Why am I paying high gas prices again… How come that now the Strait ⁠of Hormuz is deciding whether I am going to go on vacation next month or not?”

MISCALCULATIONS

There has been a rising awareness among the administration that the war and its aftermath should have been planned better beforehand, since it began on February 28, two sources who had been involved in the White House thinking have asserted, but the first White House official denied that the campaign was far-flung and was well-prepared to face any contingency.

According to analysts, the greatest miscalculation made by Trump was the way Iran would react to a war that it deems existential.

The remnant of the missile inventory and a series of armed drones are retaliated by Tehran to level the playing field against its adversaries by attacking Gulf countries neighbouring it, and disabling the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world’s oil.

Trump and his aides have failed to counterattack the dangers regardless of whether they anticipated them or not.

The former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and Turkey, John Bass, said that they did not consider the contingencies of how a war with Iran would go awry, in which it would not unfold as planned.

As the war has been prolonged, we have seen increasing indications of Trump being frustrated by the fact that he is unable to manage the narrative. He has spent the past few days shredding the news media and furthering baseless charges of treason against them for covering what he considers undermining the war effort.

“He can no longer drive the news cycle in the manner he used to because he still cannot tell us why he has brought this country to war and what comes after that,” Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy advisor in the Obama administration and the head of the Situation Room strategic consultancy in Washington, said. He appears to have lost his touch with messaging.