The International Monetary Fund (IMF) – a 191-country lender – has upgraded the economic outlook for the global economy, including the US, for 2025 and 2026 as President Donald Trump’s policies prove to be less damaging than expected.
This year, the IMF is forecasting a progress of 3% for the global economy, less than the 3.3% in 2024 but an increase on the 2.8% forecasted earlier. Next year, the lender expects a 3.1% increase, up a tick from the 3% it had expected three months ago.
Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off…
— Fan Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) April 9, 2025
Decline in trade tensions and resilience of global economy
From just three months back, Donald Trump’s decision to impose taxes of 10% or more on US imports from dozens of countries across the globe had been expected to significantly impact the global economy. But so far, the damage has been quite limited.
This is partly because numerous US importers focused on bringing in foreign goods before Trump Tariffs took effect and also because the US President ended up suspending his biggest tariffs ( including a 145% duty on Chinese goods.
This modest decline in trade tensions has contributed to the resilience of the global economy so far, according to IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. This resilience is appreciated but the trade shock could still be sizeable (albeit not as serious as initially expected).
Trump tariffs: IMF forecasts India as fastest expanding major economy
Updated IMF Growth Forecasts for 2025:
🇺🇸 US: 1.9%
🇩🇪 Germany: 0.1%
🇫🇷 France: 0.6%
🇬🇧 UK: 1.2%
🇨🇳 China: 4.8%
🇯🇵 Japan:0.7%
🇮🇳 India: 6.4%
🇷🇺 Russia: 0.9%
🇧🇷 Brazil: 2.3%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 3.6%
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 3.4%Explore the full projections. https://t.co/UVWsAPJ1L0 pic.twitter.com/CpjFxPT9kh
— IMF (@IMFNews) July 29, 2025
The International Monetary Fund has increased its forecast for the US economy to 1.9% in 2025. The second biggest economy, China, is expected to see a 4.8% progress – mostly because of less serious than expected US tariffs and from federal spending.
India is once again expected to be the fastest expanding major economy as the IMF forecasts a 6.4% progress in 2025 and 2026. The 20 economies that share the Euro currency could expand 1%, up from the 0.8% expected earlier.
