The 27-nation European Union is trying to complete a budget agreement of almost $300 billion by Christmas. Leaders are growing more uneasy about future dealmaking being affected by possible eurosceptic wins in upcoming elections around the bloc, particularly in France.
The current frontrunner in the French vote, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, has been proactively advocating for a cut in France’s financial support for the bloc. Just before the summit, Le Pen upped the ante, calling it a “democratic scandal” if leaders make a “budget for the future” before national elections.
It is a large budget that will shape the bloc’s key financial objectives for the next six years (2028-2034). Key negotiations must include future distribution of EU funds for agriculture, defence expenditure, border migration return centres in Africa and how to move the European economy to become more competitive with the United States and China.
But leaders seem to be losing hope of a December deal. In recent drafts, they’ve softened the wording and gone away from a promise to resolve “by the end of the year” and instead called for a “timely” agreement.
An agreement at the end of the year is still very difficult due to the division of member states into three opposing sides. The rule of law was recently proposed by the Irish government, which is taking the rotating EU presidency, with a baseline of about 140bn euros in cuts, and was rejected by all sides.
The “frugal” bloc of the Federal Government of Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, which calls for several hundred billion euros in budget cuts, is on one side. The “Friends of Cohesion” group, on the other hand, is stridently urging more money specifically designed to help regional development and agriculture.
In the meantime, the Government of France is strongly against the mass reductions, saying that the EU should have more money to face the global challenges. French leaders have stressed that any agreement would be impossible unless the EU imposes significant new bloc-wide taxes on digital services, environmental damage and big corporations.
Elections are scheduled for Italy, Poland, Greece, Finland and France next summer and the prospect of meeting the new eurosceptic governments is seen as a grim situation to be in negotiations with next summer. European Council President Antonio Costa will take the lead in the next negotiations, avoiding the delay, and an extraordinary meeting will be held late in November to try to get the critical budget over the line.
