According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth in 2026 will reach 3.1%, owing to the resilience of developed countries and the increase in artificial intelligence investment. Still, this figure shows a decline from the earlier forecast of 3.5% in 2025.
The main threats to global growth are the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict and the continued Ukraine war. The rise of these geopolitical crises has led to higher prices for international oil and natural gas, which has made the economies of countries that import energy, and the economies of low-income countries, especially vulnerable if they are not included in the AI-driven investments rush.
This mix, the IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro noted, has left the global economy very “fragmented. She emphasized the need for urgent action, urging governments to concentrate on relief measures in the short term, while ensuring monetary policies are geared towards price stability.
The dependence of the regions on energy sources and combining energy with technologies makes a basis for the economic reality. The growth figures for developed countries in the AI supply chain are much higher, which can allow reaching the average level of growth of 2.1%. At the same time, the growth in China, on the instruction of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, will likely decrease by half a percent (0.5%) to 4.5%.
Europe’s economic recovery is struggling under high inflation and low consumer confidence. It’s also tough for the European Central Bank. The forecast is for eurozone inflation to hit 3.1% this year, overshooting their 2% goal. Therefore, the outlook for growth in Europe is also dim. Growth is forecast to be very slow for the next several years, falling to 1.1% in 2026, and only reaching 1.2% in 2027.
The Deutsche Bundesbank is forecasting 1.3% growth in Germany. The Spanish economy is projected to grow at relatively high level of 2.5%, while France’s is only projected 0.4%, with its unemployment rate projected to increase to 8.4%.
In the United Kingdom, which has a central bank named the Bank of England and which has a slightly higher growth projection for this year, the growth forecast was raised to 1.3%. But next year’s growth in the UK is expected to be 1.2%, driven by further restrains in investment and consumption due to high energy prices and long-term interest rates.
