Over 700,000 Americans have already voted in at least 30 states, before Election Day is here in one month. Early poll numbers suggest a trend that has been seen over the last election cycle – that Democratic voters are more motivated to vote than they were.

The proportion of Democratic ballot requests has significantly risen over the past few years in some of the battleground states with Senate and/or gubernatorial contests that were projected to have a close race. The Iowa Secretary of State has seen the percentage of Democrats making ballot requests climb up from 54 percent to 67 percent. Likewise, the Pennsylvania Department of State says the Democratic request share is 66% up from 62%.

In several battleground states hosting key Senate and gubernatorial races, the share of Democratic ballot requests has noticeably increased compared to this time in 2024. Data monitored by the Iowa Secretary of State shows Democrats accounting for 67% of ballot requests, up from 54%. Similarly, the Pennsylvania Department of State reports a Democratic request share of 66%, an increase from 62%.

The scenario is the same in other areas. The Secretary of State’s office in Maine reports that 57% of the early ballot requests are from Democrats, a slight increase from the 53% from Democrats in the previous cycle. Meanwhile, early reports from the North Carolina State Board of Elections indicate that Democratic requests are up 6%, to 42%, two year ago when they were 36%.

However, the increase in votes cast does not imply that there is a corresponding increase in the number of votes cast in actual elections, which will be verified only after the election, which will be held on November 3 and when the results of the election will already be produced. Preliminary results will not reveal the winning candidates, and Republicans may be just changing their voting behaviour from the way they used to vote in the past to using a method of voting in person on Election Day.

Since the onset of Covid-19, changes in voting behaviour trends have continued. The total number of voters voting by mail has been lower than in 2020, but older voters aged 65 years and older vote by mail more than before. This group of voters accounted for 37%, and this percentage has increased as older voters are often eligible to vote by mail without having to provide any specific reasons.

Virginia’s Department of Elections is producing the best data about early voting. The most data available are in relation to mail-in ballots and in-person early voting. Localities that had a high percentage of votes for Kamala Harris also have a high turnout this year, while those that supported Donald Trump have lower turnout numbers.

Another factor showing partisan turnout in two competitive Virginia House member positions is the show of enthusiasm that has been observed. Thus far, 10 Democratic voters have outnumbered Republican Party members in those positions, specifically in Virginia’s 1st and 2nd Districts, indicating the same numbers of individuals who identified with each party were present in the primaries.

But the early voting rolls have their drawbacks. So far, 700,000 people have cast their ballots, just 10% of the total electorate expected to vote. Also, the early numbers are much lower than the typical totals for mail-in voting, which tend to be higher among Democratic voters, and high early in-person and Election Day turnout tends to be among Republicans.