Oil Prices Surge as US Peace Push Ignites Middle East War-End Hopes

The volatile post-settlement trading saw oil pared gains on 24th March following a rise of almost 5 per cent in the previous session as Iran was reported to have received a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, as sent by the U.S.

 

The reports were confirmed by Reuters, quoting a source that is aware of the issue. The New York Times, citing the two officials, had said that the plan was delivered through Pakistan.

 

Channel 12, the first to cover the plan, reported that a one-month ceasefire will be declared based on a mechanism that U.S. Middle East envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are developing.

 

Before the reports, Brent futures were settled by 4.55 or 4.55 percent at $104.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 4.79 per cent or 4.22 to reach $92.35.

 

Brent declined earlier gains, gaining only 13 cents, or 0.13 per cent, at 4:59 p.m. ET (2259 GMT), at the close of today, which is not final, at $100.07. WTI was up 29 cents, ⁠or 0.33%, at $88.41.

 

On Tuesday, the prime minister of Pakistan stated that he would be happy to host discussions that would involve the U.S and Iran in ending the Gulf War.

 

The offer was announced a day following Trump commanding a 5-day postponement of assaults on Iranian power facilities because the U.S. had discussions with the unspecified Iranian authorities whose consultations yielded substantial results, sending crude futures contracts lower than 10 per cent.

 

Iran refuted on Monday that it had held negotiations with the United States.

 

“We are getting very mixed signals,” senior analyst Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group said. “I believe that the market is factoring in some concerns that these negotiations are not going to be fruitful and that the war will have to persist.”

 

Since the onset of war, the negotiating posture of Iran has become more rigid, according to sources of Reuters, which would require the U.S. to make major compromises in case mediation actions resulted in solemn negotiations.

 

SUPPLY DISRUPTION PERSISTS

 

Both benchmarks had increased by almost 5 per cent earlier on Tuesday amid the lack of supply of crude oil.

Shipments of approximately a fifth of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas via the Strait of Hormuz have been virtually stopped by the war, leading to what the International Energy Agency has termed the largest-ever disruption in oil supply.

 

Iran informed the International Maritime Organisation member states that non-hostile shipping was permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz, provided they contacted the Iranian authorities, which the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, following oil futures settlement. After the report, Brent and WTI were not much different after settlement.

 

“The situation on the ground has not changed,” according to Nikos Tzabouras, analyst with Tradu, which is owned by Jefferies. “The Strait of Hormuz is still closed in effect, and the disruptions to supply are still present and wracking the market.”

 

On Tuesday, Iran launched salvoes of missiles into Israel. Three Israeli officials, who spoke anonymously, reported that Trump seemed serious about a deal, although they believed that it had little chance that Iran would yield to U.S. demands in new talks.

 

“Each day ⁠that hostilities continue to happen, the chances of short-term shipping interruptions being extrapolated into long-term supply imbalances grow. The world has seen global energy projections rebalancing between the supply gluts to possible deficits,” research analyst Kenny Zhu at Global X.

 

Brent has a chance of hitting $150 per barrel in case the strait is successfully closed until the close of April, Macquarie opined. That would be the highest in all-time, 147 in 2008.

 

In recent attacks on ⁠energy infrastructure in the region, the office of a gas company, as well as a pressure-reduction station, was targeted in the Iranian city of Isfahan, and a projectile hit a gas pipeline serving a power station in the city of Fars, the Iranian Fars news agency reported.