The cost of oil rose by over 2% on 13th January as the likelihood of the Iranian crude export being interrupted overshadowed the potential of increased supply in Venezuela.
The futures in the case of Brent surged by $1.60 or 2.5 percent to close at $65.47. The West Texas Intermediate crude in the U.S. was $61.15 a barrel, and it rose by $1.65, or approximately 2.8 percent.
MADURO’S FALL JUST COST IRAN BILLIONS
The collapse of Nicolás Maduro didn’t just reshape Venezuela.
It blew a hole in Iran’s sanctions-evasion network.
Here’s what’s now at risk for Tehran.• $2B+ in direct Venezuelan debt owed to Iran
• ~$1B owed to Iran’s national oil… pic.twitter.com/URxEt6psyS— Imtiaz Mahmood (@ImtiazMadmood) January 5, 2026
The oil market is developing price hedging against geopolitical forces, noted PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans, and its possible exclusion of Iranian exports, as well as difficulties in Venezuela, the negotiation of the war in Ukraine, and U.S. interest in seizing control of Greenland.
Iran, which happens to be one of the largest producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is grappling with its largest anti-government protests in years. In response to a government crackdown against protesters, an Iranian official has claimed that almost 2,000 people have been killed, and that thousands of others have been arrested, which has prompted a warning of military intervention by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Monday, Trump announced that the tariff rate on any business carried out with the United States will be 25 percent on any business that engages Iran in the process of the business. Iranian crude has the largest customer in China.
“For example, China would not avoid Iranian barrels,” said Bob Yawger of Mizuho Securities in New York, “but it would cut the world supplies by 3.3 million barrels a day that Iran is currently selling to the market.”
On Tuesday, Trump shared on his social media platform that the people of Iran needed to overtake their institutions and that they were coming to their aid.
Trump indicated that he had planned meetings with the Iranian leaders until the protesters were killed. The statement slightly pushed up the prices by over 3 percent to a 3-month high.
Four Greek-controlled oil tankers were also hit by unknown drones on Tuesday, which also signalled an impending shorter supply of oil. Eight sources reported to Reuters that the tankers had been in the Black Sea heading to refill oil in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal off the Russian coast.
The threat of a surplus in supply has been put on the back burner in the meantime, according to Rystad analyst Janiv Shah, who said that surplus throughput in European refineries was burdening the gasoil market.
UNREST SUPPORTING PREMIUM OF BRENT
The premium of a given oil over the Middle East benchmark Dubai increased on Tuesday and reached its highest since July due to geopolitical unrest in Iran and Venezuela, which favors the global oil price benchmark, LSEG data indicated.
In our opinion, unrest in Iran has caused a geopolitical risk premium of between $34 barrels in oil prices, said Barclays analysts in a note.
The markets are also struggling with the fear that more crude supply would be approaching the market as Venezuela’s exports are resumed.
Following a coup that ousted President Nicolas Maduro, Trump last week stated that Caracas would deliver to the Western-sanctioned U.S. up to 50 million barrels of oil.
The international oil trading companies have become the first winners in the competition to dominate the Venezuelan crude streams, beating the U.S. oil giants in the race.
